Decarbonisation of heating is a vital piece of the jigsaw puzzle of reaching net zero. But are we lagging behind the targets we’ve set to change the default heating options for British homes to one that produces less greenhouse gas emissions?
At Cultivate Innovation we have sponsored an EngD student, Zak Brown, who is exploring the role that Local Area Energy Planning is having in supporting the part heat pumps could play in the journey to net zero. He is currently undertaking a deep-dive into the numbers on heat pump roll-outs and seeing some interesting results, both in terms of the targets that are being set for heat pump installations but also the progress that has been made so far on this journey.
In other work we have been exploring the concept of an ‘S-curve’ in relation to the deployment of new technologies – the idea that the rate of deployment won’t be constant but will vary over time. In the case of heat pumps, this is perhaps best represented by the number of new installations per year.
We have been doing some very basic modelling around these issues, exploring the data on installations over the last five years but then looking at this data in the context of the targets for 2030 and 2050 that are set within most Local Area Energy Plans. Fitting S-Curves to this data for different local authorities reveals some significant variations, particularly in the peak rates of deployment that will be needed, but also in the progress that different local authorities are already making towards those targets.
In other areas where there has been slow progress to date, there will need to be a significant increase in the current rates of deployment if even the 2030 targets are to be hit
Constraints on heat pump take-up
Initially it is hard to get going, not only is there the issue of whether people wish to purchase the new technology but there are also constraints around there being enough installers with the necessary skills to make it happen. Arguably, as you address these issues and heat pumps become ‘the norm’ for the domestic heating sector, this rate of deployment will increase to a maximum which will be maintained for a few years, but then it will drop off again. This reduction will be affected by a number of factors, not least the willingness of all households to have heat pumps installed in their homes. In addition, of course, about 20 years in, some of the effort of the installers will be taken up in replacing the very first heat pumps to be installed which, like 20 year-old gas boilers, are likely to be reaching the end of their operational life.
In some areas, progress is good, it seems likely that 2030 targets will be exceeded and there is a high likelihood that the anticipated number of heat pumps will be installed by 2050. Of course, the benefit of getting going early is that the later targets become easier to hit, not least because the maximum rate of deployment is significantly lower – you need less people trained as heat pump installers to hit your targets.
Significant challenges
In other areas where there has been slow progress to date, there will need to be a significant increase in the current rates of deployment if even the 2030 targets are to be hit and, after that, if the 2050 targets are to be hit, the rates of deployment will need to continue to rise to almost heroic levels – significantly higher than the current rates of gas boiler replacements. This creates a number of significant challenges in these localities. Not only will a much larger workforce need new heat pump installation skills, they will need to be reassured that there will still be jobs for them in the sector once the short-term peak of new installations has been delivered during the late 2030’s.
All of this creates a lot of uncertainty. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be locations where the current targets for heat pump deployment will be achieved, and this will become the low carbon heating solution of choice. However, it is also clear that there are other places where this will not be the case and other solutions will need to be found if we are to prevent the way we heat our homes from continuing to add to the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.
