The Delivering Net Zero project was commissioned by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Energy Strategic Advisory Council to maximise the impact of its research programme on key decision-making processes to secure a net-zero future. Its aim was to ensure that the research funded by the UKRI Energy and Decarbonisation Programme had the maximum opportunity to inform and guide the response of UK decision-makers to climate change.
Representatives from the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Committee on Climate Change, an industrial decarbonisation cluster, a non-governmental organisation, and a large UKRI-funded research centre were consulted to help shape the design and outputs of the project to ensure it delivered benefits and impact.
An advisory group chaired by Professor Jim Watson of University College London provided a review of activities throughout the project and acted as a governance body.
Project Partners and Funders
Cultivate Innovation is an energy focussed innovation research consultancy that connects people and empowers them to build high quality relationships that deliver lasting impact. It specialises in working with organisations who are delivering innovative low-carbon energy solutions.
Built upon experience of working at a senior level with both the private and public sectors, Cultivate is recognised by its clients as an organisation that can bridge the gap between academia, industry and consumers by understanding that engineers and investors speak very different languages and that these conversations take place in a context framed by policy regulations and broader societal needs.
Cardiff University is an ambitious and innovative university with a bold and strategic vision located in the capital city of Wales. The University excels in education, research and innovation building strong international relationships whilst delivering significant economic and social impact in Wales and the UK as a whole.
The Understanding Risk Research Group at Cardiff School of Psychology conducts leading edge research into public and stakeholder engagement with a range of energy technology and environmental issues on both the supply and demand side. We are core members of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and also led the social science work-stream of the Flexible Integrated Energy Systems (FLEXIS) project.
The University of Leeds is one of the largest higher education institutions in the UK, renowned globally for the quality of its teaching and research. The University strives to achieve academic excellence within an ethical framework informed by its values of integrity, equality and inclusion, community and professionalism.
The University’s Sustainability Research Institute explores a wide range of issues including climate change, energy, transport, water, resource use, land-use, conservation, cities and communities, business and lifestyles – specialising in participatory, action-orientated research that brings together government, business, non-governmental organisations and local communities to enhance the relevance, quality and practical influence of their research.
The project was funded by UKRI.
Academic papers
Reports: Analysis of Workshops
Background Documents
Carbon Budgets
Carbon budgets have become a prominent tool in guiding climate policy.
- There are significant physical uncertainties and value based assumptions that must be resolved in order to assign national level carbon budgets.
- A wide range of budgets could be argued as consistent with the Paris agreement, based on how the agreement is interpreted, and how uncertainties are addressed.
- These uncertainties present a call to action to increase the ambition, scale and pace of national emissions reductions to achieve maximum possible emissions reductions year on year, to minimise the UK’s cumulative contribution to climate breakdown.
Energy Demand
In the UK energy demand has plateaued in recent years.
- We can reduce energy demand by avoiding unnecessary energy services, changing the way that energy services are delivered and improving energy efficiency
- The advantage of energy demand reduction as a mitigation strategy is because of its ability to provide short-term reductions to cumulative emissions. The recently produced Energy White Paper is looking at reductions of about 30% by 2050
- Mobility accounts for the largest sector of energy demand, and 75% is for road transport
- Lifestyle change strategies can have a larger impact on energy demand and emissions in the short term than the switch to electric vehicles, however a combination of both is required to reach net zero. A key challenge is the move from private car ownership
- 29% of final energy consumption is used domestically to provide energy services relating to shelter – with over 70% of demand used for heating. Retrofitting the UK housing stock with insulation, improved glazing and draught-proofing should be an immediate priority
- The largest potential to reduce energy demand for nutrition comes from directing shifts away from animal products – particularly moving from meat to a plant-based diet
- We can reduce energy demand for goods and services by improving the material productivity of production and reducing consumption levels
- Successfully reducing energy demand requires increasing the rate of energy efficiency improvement and a broader range of changes to social practices and infrastructure which will require a systemic coordinated approach
- The key challenge in designing policy is defining what can systematically realise changes to infrastructure and social practices, rather than the “nudge” interventions that dominate current thinking
Energy Innovation
Meeting net zero targets requires an increase in the pace and scale of energy innovation. Studies show energy technologies take between 20 & 68 years to move from first prototype to 1% of a normal market.
- Different technologies necessitate different innovation journeys and timescales. Policy makers need to take a prominent role in funding research, implementing policy, and shaping markets if energy innovation is to support the delivery of net zero.
- Most prominent low carbon developments have occurred in the electricity sector.
- 2020 Energy White Paper announced funding for a £1bn Net Zero Innovation Portfolio across ten areas of focus that underpins innovation across the whole energy system to 2030.
- The Net Zero Innovation Board will be key in providing strong coordination across the innovation system.
- Economic policy is an important tool for aligning innovation policy. Public procurement can catalyse early market development, stimulate demand, and shape systems transformation.
- The Citizens Assembly UK backed measures that improve individual choice. Competition can reduce prices and speed up innovation.
- The opening of UK energy policy making to a greater number of evidence sources has been important in developing the expertise to deliver net zero.
- Net Zero policy approaches will need to carefully navigate the tension between stability and change.
- Key decisions in relation to the direction of energy system decarbonisation need to be made if technologies are to be deployed at the pace required. High levels of cross system coordination are required for effective decision making.
Social Change
Confronting the dependency of modern societies on fossil fuels will require structural change across many of the institutions which shape every aspect of people’s lives.
- People and society are deeply implicated in the changes required to deliver net zero to the extent that their support for transition pathways and ability to change social practices could either greatly facilitate or derail possible plans.
- To ensure that low carbon infrastructure and policies are accepted within society they must either resonate with current social values or a new social contract for change must be built.
- Changes to social practices and lifestyles can play a key role in the transition to net zero.
- Some argue social change requires a radical transformation of socio-economic structures and the power relations embedded within them.
- Grassroots activism and social movements are central to social transformations and help to centre climate justice concerns.
- Political institutions currently face multiple levels of inertia and systems of governance are acting as barriers to change.
- Neoliberal, market-based solutions dominate the policy landscape and thinking is firmly rooted in maintaining economic growth.
- More effective communication and innovative approaches to governance (for example Citizens Assemblies) are essential to help overcome these political and social barriers.
Greenhouse Gas Removal
Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) refers to anything that removes and sequesters previously emitted greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
- GGR is distinct from emissions reduction technologies, which reduce the entry of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
- A very diverse range of GGR technologies have been proposed, at many different stages of technology development.
- Recent estimates suggest that even in a scenario of hugely ambitious efforts to reduce emissions, the UK would need to remove and sequester around 90 million tonnes of CO2 every year by 2050. This is mostly to compensate for sectors which are difficult to completely decarbonise, such as aviation and agriculture.
- GGR proposals differ in how long they can sequester CO2 for. The most advanced techniques, such as planting trees, can only store CO2 for a short amount of time. Techniques which can deliver long-term, large-scale removals are at an early stage of development. The risk of technology failure means that cutting emissions needs to take priority.
- Developing new innovations ethically and effectively requires consideration of societal issues early on. GGR should not be seen as simply an engineering challenge. Many people are concerned that GGR merely treats the symptoms of the problem, not the cause, and that it could divert attention away from climate mitigation.
- GGR at the scale required for the UK will require multiple £ billions worth of investment per annum, estimated at 1-2% of total tax revenues by 2050. The lack of an economic incentive to scale up these technologies is a major barrier
Energy Supply
The supply of energy from electricity, liquid hydrocarbons, and natural gas cover almost 70% of the country’s GHG emissions.
- Renewables generated 1% of the UK’s electricity in 1990, in 2010 over 6%, but by 2019 renewables accounted for 37.1%.
- However, low carbon electricity represented just 5% of the UK’s total energy supply in 2019.
- Heating and transport have lacked the same major shifts towards decarbonisation.
- Heat might be the largest “credibility gap” to the UK’s Net Zero target.
- Electricity generation’s main concern could come from removing natural gas as the main form of ‘dispatchable generation’ left in the system.
- A whole systems perspective is needed for a coherent, cost-effective decarbonisation pathway for energy supply.
- Infrastructure is coming under increasing strain due to ongoing integration of variable renewable generation. Focus must shift to introducing flexibility across the supply sector.
- One crucial factor going beyond 2020 is the need for urgency in decision making
Project Methodology
Develop
Develop an understanding of the needs of decision makers and the requirements that they have for the evidence that informs their decision making
Recognise
Recognise the wider systems impact of any decisions targeted at net-zero, gaining an understanding of where “decision-makers” have agency over decisions – providing insights into the complexity of formulating policy
Begin
Begin the process of structured engagement to build a more trusting relationship between industry, academia and government
Collaborate
Use a deliberative process by running a series of workshops with leading UK academics and key stakeholders from the public, private and third sectors
The desired outcome of the project was to create an environment whereby rapid but above all robust decisions made in the UK are informed by the most advanced research on climate mitigation.
Project Workshops
Round 1
February 2021
“Framing the Vision” – focussed on gathering and structuring knowledge and consensus building within the academic community
Round 2
June 2021
“Building the Vision” – sought to understand stakeholder perspectives of the net-zero challenge, future visions, constraints and opportunities with stakeholders from the public sector, private sector, boundary organisations and UKRI
Round 3
November 2021
“Comparing the Vision” – reflected upon the vision and consensus thinking derived from the stakeholder groups participating in Round Two and share that with the original academic participants in Round One
Round 4
May 2022
“Sharing the Vision” – the final workshop brought together academics and representatives of the stakeholder groups to agree outputs of the project to inform a narrative on what is required to deliver a net-zero future in the short-term (the next 10 years) and the longer-term (from 2030) guided by the best academic evidence